How Did the Election Affect the Markets?
by Dominique Schuh
The Australian share market has closed flat after yesterday's trade, with gains for tech stocks and the major mining companies slightly outweighed by a decline in telecom and consumer staples shares. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 4.1 points, or 0.06 per cent to 6,451.9 points at 1615 AEST on Monday, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 0.8 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 6,544.8.
The Australian share market enjoyed a post-election bounce last week after the Coalition's surprise election win, however, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver expected the share market will quickly move on from the election result.
"With the return of the coalition with its more pro-business policies and uncertainty now removed around changes... it's possible we will see a bit of a short-term bounce in the share market," he said. Dr. Oliver said the Coalition win removed uncertainty on excess franking credits, changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax adversely affecting the property market, and increased industrial relations regulation.
The shock result has wide-ranging implications for a slew of listed companies, from banks to builders and resources firms, with Labor's plans to scale back tax incentives for investors and take tougher action on climate change now dead.
Property-related shares, banks, and retail shares could be the key beneficiaries, he said. "Against this, though the Australian share market has already performed pretty well over the last few months and is likely be dominated by issues around global trade, slowing growth, interest rates and the iron ore price and so will quickly move on from the election I suspect," Mr Oliver said.
In property news, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are showing early signs of ending their steep slides, with a strong bounce in auction clearance rates on the first Saturday after the federal election. Preliminary figures from CoreLogic show that 69.9 per cent of homes that went under the hammer in Sydney found a buyer, while 62.9 per cent of auctions in Melbourne cleared.
Those figures will be revised lower once extra results are submitted by agents, but Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan expects the final result to come in about 65 per cent for Sydney and 60 per cent for Melbourne - the highest rate since April last year. "Demand has clearly seen an initial boost from the clearer prospect of interest rate cuts and the removal of uncertainty around housing related tax policy following the Coalition's re-election," Mr. Hassan wrote in a note.
"Prospective changes to loan serviceability assessments have likely given support as well." Last week, bank regulator APRA flagged a change in the way banks assess home loan applications, which would result in people being able to borrow larger sums.
While these results may give investors some short term cause for optimism, we recommend your focus remains on your long term investment plans and goals.